Ali Masomzadeh, Dubai College
Imagine a future in which artificial intelligence performs tasks with unparalleled precision and robots outnumber humans in the workplace, making us question our own relevance. This is a question that has plagued people’s minds for millennia, not a scenario from a dystopian book. The fear that technology may advance to the point that human work becomes obsolete is nothing new. Waves of technical transformation have occurred throughout history, and with each one came concerns about widespread unemployment. However, despite these developments, long-term rises in the worldwide unemployment rate have not been very noticeable. So, is widespread unemployment really going to result from the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and sophisticated AI tools like ChatGPT, or is this just another case of unfounded fear?
Technological Advancements: A Historical Perspective
The first major ‘technological revolution’ was the Industrial Revolution and started in Britain in 1760. Many people feared losing their jobs as a result of the introduction of automated processes in machine tools, the iron sector, and textile technology. Factory workers imagined that in the not-too-distant future, machines will make them obsolete. However, this apocalyptic picture was not realised.
The average unemployment rate at this time was 5.8% to 6.6% [1], according to the Cambridge Economic History of Europe, but it is currently 4.4% in the AI-driven United Kingdom [2]. Although employment statistics were impacted by traditional gender roles, the revolution also brought about the emergence of new sectors and career opportunities. The emergence of cotton mills, which employed thousands of people by 1797, highlights the duality of technical advancement: it both produces and kills jobs.
The Luddite movement, in which English labourers destroyed machinery they feared threatened their lives, starkly captures the dread of the Industrial Revolution. This was not unjustified concern; many craftspeople were being replaced by mechanical looms and other advancements. But these adjustments also boosted economic expansion and produced new job openings in developing sectors. The current manufacturing system, railroads, and international trade network were all created during the Industrial Revolution and all required labour from humans.
Similar concerns were raised with the introduction of computers in the 1950s. The first commercially available computer, the UNIVAC 1, was feared to pose a danger to many jobs. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that rather than closing the pay gap, the computer revolution increased it, favouring those with more education. Before the advent of digital technology, human computers handled calculations. They now manage and program these devices.
Originally thought to be job destroyers, computers eventually created new jobs. New sectors and professions were created as a result of the IT industry’s explosive growth. Once just a jumble of orchards, Silicon Valley has grown to become a major worldwide tech powerhouse with millions of workers. The computer revolution showed how adaptable humans can be, how they can pick up new talents and create value in previously unthinkable ways.
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
AI is thought to be the newest danger to jobs today. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is defined as the process of creating computer systems that can do jobs that would normally need human intelligence. But this field’s origins can be found in the works of classical scholars like Aristotle and Al-Khwarizmi, as well as important turning points such as the 1956 Dartmouth Conference. The worry of AI-induced unemployment is mainly baseless, despite AI’s amazing capabilities, as demonstrated by MIT’s artificial neuron that processes information a million times quicker than a person.
There have been several important turning points in the development of AI from a theoretical idea to real-world applications. Alan Turing established the Turing Test in 1950 as a means of assessing machine intelligence. The foundation for modern AI models was established by the development of the first neural networks in the 1950s and 1960s. Even with these developments, early AI systems were constrained and frequently fell short of expectations.
In 2023, the World Economic Forum projected that 85 million employment would be affected by automation by 2025 [3]. Present data, meanwhile, paints a different picture of the situation. The impact of AI to productivity development is negligible when considering the global market as a whole. According to Investopedia, artificial intelligence (AI) will only slightly boost U.S. productivity growth over the next ten years, underscoring the importance of human labour.
The limitations of AI become clear when looking at particular businesses. AI systems help physicians in the healthcare industry; they do not take their position. While AI helps radiologists diagnose patients more accurately, human oversight is still essential. AI-generated music and art are exciting in the creative domain, but they lack the emotional richness and context that human artists offer. The interaction between AI support and human creativity shows a cooperative future rather than a scenario of replacement.
Human Adaptability and the Future Workforce
Human adaptability is the strongest argument against AI-caused mass unemployment. 60% of employment in existence now did not exist in 1940 [4], according to a National Bureau of Economic Research research, demonstrating our ability to adapt and develop new businesses. Technological developments after World War II resulted in a move towards new industries rather than job losses and low unemployment rates.
The way that job markets have changed throughout time demonstrates how resilient the workforce is. The emergence of the gig economy—which is fueled by services like Uber and Airbnb—illustrates how technology is generating new kinds of jobs. In this setting, independent contractors and freelancers flourish, using technology to provide services all over the world. The modern employment market’s flexibility and dynamism demonstrate how humans may constantly reinvent work.
Let’s take a look at the number of robots that use artificial intelligence working in assembly lines and industry. According to Exploding Topics, there are over 3.4 million industrial robots in the world today [5] and the global robot-to-human ratio in the manufacturing industry is 1 to 71 [6], Whilst the number 3.4 million may seem to be note-worth signal of change in terms of the number of robots able to take human jobs, once you put into context with the human to robot ration working in industry, it seems highly unlikely that robots will make us unemployable at least in assembly lines and industry very soon, or for that matter, at all.
Furthermore, the way AI is being incorporated into different industries shows how technology may be used as an enhancer rather than a substitute. While AI systems in finance can help traders and evaluate market movements, human judgement is still necessary for making strategic decisions. Drones equipped with AI are used in agriculture to monitor crop health, but farmers’ knowledge on how to manage fields and livestock cannot be replaced. These illustrations point to a future in which artificial intelligence will augment human talents rather than replace them.
The Real Threat: Human Laziness and Complacency
The real danger lies not in technology itself but in human complacency. According to Gallup, 62% of workers globally are “not engaged,” and 15% are actively disengaged [7]. Employment is at risk from this lack of engagement rather than from technical innovation. The engagement and motivation of people are essential to workplace efficiency. Every year, disengaged workers cost businesses billions of dollars in lost productivity. Society needs a culture of constant learning and adaptation to solve this problem. To equip employees for positions that are changing, organisations need to engage in reskilling and upskilling programs. In order to be relevant, the workforce of the future will need to embrace lifelong learning and constantly update their abilities.
Past historical data points to a stronger correlation between human-caused events and unemployment rates than technology and employability, further supporting this current and future concern. The Great Depression (1929-1939) saw U.S. unemployment peak at 25% due to the stock market crash [8]. Post-World War I and II transitions also caused temporary job losses. The 1970s oil crisis led to stagflation and high unemployment in Western economies. The 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse, caused unemployment spikes worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to unprecedented job losses due to lockdowns and economic disruption, peaking at 14.8% in the U.S [9], and, while possibly naturally caused, the real harm came from humanity’s inability to contain it.
Education and the Future Workforce
Education systems are essential for preparing the workers of the future. Critical thinking, problem-solving, and digital literacy must become integrated into traditional curricula. A focus on interdisciplinary learning will provide students the flexibility they need in a labor market that is changing quickly. Technology integration in the classroom, from AI-assisted learning aids to virtual classrooms, can improve student learning and get them ready for professions in the IT sector.
Apprenticeships and vocational training are also essential for closing the skills gap. These courses match education to business demands by giving students real-world experience and transferable abilities. Partnerships between companies and educational institutions can result in customised curricula that guarantee graduates are prepared for the workforce. Initiatives for lifelong learning will make it possible for people to continuously upgrade their skills throughout their careers, with the help of community activities and online platforms.
Innovative Solutions, Policies, and Regulations for a Changing Job Market
Innovative solutions are crucial as we traverse the future to deal with the problems brought on by developing technology. The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) is becoming more and more popular as a potential remedy for automation-related unemployment. UBI could reduce financial uncertainty and free people up to pursue artistic and entrepreneurial enterprises by acting as a safety net. Pilot projects in nations like Canada and Finland provide information about the viability and effects of universal basic income.
Additionally, encouraging an entrepreneurial culture can stimulate job growth and economic expansion. New sectors and job possibilities can arise as a result of promoting innovation and helping startups. The public and commercial sectors must work together to establish an environment that supports entrepreneurship by giving people access to resources, capital, and mentorship.
Governments will have a major impact on how future workers are shaped. In order to address concerns like worker rights, income inequality, and job displacement, policy frameworks must change with the times. Employees will be safeguarded from technology disruptions by the implementation of progressive labour laws and social safety nets.
Automation and AI regulation are equally crucial to ensuring moral behaviour and avoiding abuse. Public trust will be increased by setting norms for AI development, accountability, and openness. To meet the global issues created by emerging technology and provide a unified regulatory framework, international cooperation is required.
A Future of Collaboration
Humans and machines do not need to play a zero-sum game in the workplace of the future. Rather, it is a cooperative project that enhances human potential through technology. It takes a team effort from individuals, companies, and governments to embrace this synergy. The advancement of technology presents both benefits and challenges that can be navigated by cultivating a culture of ethical behaviours, innovation, and constant learning.
Ultimately, our employability is threatened by our own readiness to allow technology to define us, not by the unrelenting advancement of technology. Will we step up to the plate and use automation and artificial intelligence to build a future in which people and robots work side-by-side? Or will we live in a world where we are made obsolete by our own inaction rather than by technology as a result of complacency and disengagement?
Technological developments have the power to boost the economy, spawn new industries, and enhance our standard of living, as history has demonstrated. Technology does not dictate the future; rather, our response to it does. Through adapting to change, encouraging creativity, and placing a high value on human potential, we may create a future in which technology benefits humans and improves rather than diminishes our roles.
Let us take an active role in creating a future where technical innovation coexists peacefully with human ingenuity, flexibility, and spirit, rather than only being passive observers of technological advancement. The question is not if technology will render us unemployed, but rather, will we permit it to do so. We have a choice.
References
- Sydney Pollard, “The Cambridge Economic History of Europe”
- Office for National Statistics, “Unemployment Rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted),” https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms.
- Andrea Beltramello and Francesco Cingano, “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Growth and Employment,” VoxEU, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-artificial-intelligence-growth-and-employment#:~:text=The%20World%20Economic%20Forum%20concluded,information%20security%20and%20digital%20marketing.
- ResearchGate, “More than 60% of Jobs Done in the United States in 2018 Had Not Yet Been Invented,” https://www.researchgate.net/figure/More-than-60-of-jobs-done-in-the-United-States-in-2018-had-not-yet-been-invented-in_fig6_360965560.
- RS Components, “Future of Industrial Robotics,” https://uk.rs-online.com/web/content/discovery/ideas-and-advice/future-industrial-robotics.
- Strategic Market Research, “Robotics Industry Statistics,” https://www.strategicmarketresearch.com/blogs/robotics-industry-statistics.
- SoFi, “Unhappy Workers Could Cost the Global Economy Trillions,” https://www.sofi.com/article/money-life/unhappy-workers-could-cost-the-global-economy-trillions/?placement=story&type=DN.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “The Great Depression Curriculum: Economic Episodes in American History Part 3,” https://www.stlouisfed.org/the-great-depression/curriculum/economic-episodes-in-american-history-part-3.
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, “COVID-19 and Economic Equity Brief,” https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/migrated_legacy_files//199901/covid-economic-equity-brief.pdf.
